By Ruy Teixeira
The Mountain West —Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah —has develop into the hot swing area in American politics. All symptoms element to those states, specially Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, being an important within the 2012 election. regrettably, the increase of this quarter has been underreported within the media, and plenty of political observers have basically the main superficial knowing of the profound monetary, political, and social alterations that proceed to reshape the Mountain West. America's New Swing quarter is the remedy.Led via bestselling writer and political analyst Ruy Teixeira, a skilled staff of students assembled by way of the Brookings Mountain West software (housed on the college of Nevada–Las Vegas) offers the evidence and the narrative useful for figuring out what's occurring during this zone and why it's so important.Contents 1. creation and Overview2. America's New Swing zone: The Political Demography and Geography of the Mountain West3. Metropolitan balloting styles within the Mountain West: the recent and previous Political Heartlands4. Hispanics, Race, and the altering Political panorama of the us Mountain West5. The Political Attitudes of the Millennial new release within the Mountain West6. The Mountain West this present day: A local Survey7. Reapportionment and Redistricting within the Mountain WestContributors contain Karlyn Bowman (American company Institute), David Damore(University of Nevada–Las Vegas (UNLV), William Frey (Brookings Institution), Scott Keeter (Pew learn Center), Robert E. Lang (Brookings, UNLV, and the Lincy Institute), Tom Sanchez (Virginia Tech University), and Ruy Teixeira (Century starting place and the heart for American Progress).
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Extra info for America's new swing region: changing politics and demographics in the Mountain West
Nevada County Source: Authors' calculations of decennial census data RENO RENO RURAL HEARTLAND RURAL HEARTLAND Republican Margin 10%+ Republican Margin 10%+ Republican Margin up to 10% Republican Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin up to 10% Democrat Margin 10%+ LAS VEGAS LAS VEGAS Democrat Margin 10%+ Source: Authors’ calculations based on election data. indd 9 1/30/12 3:52 PM Nevada County Presidential Voting, 1988 Nevada CountyVoting, Presidential Map E-4. data Source: Authors'on calculations of election Source: Authors' calculations of election data Nevada County Presidential Voting Change, 1988-2008 Map E-5.
The most striking thing is how much of the map is orange, indicating a margin shift of 10 points or more toward the Republicans, despite the fact that the state as a whole moved strongly toward the Democrats over the time period (by 17 points). The orange parts of the map include almost all of the East region. Reflecting this pattern, the East region of Colorado, as shown in table C-4, moved toward the GOP by 10 points over this period. But the East represents only 5 percent of the Colorado vote.
That relatively low figure was driven by Obama’s 61 percent support among Colorado’s Hispanic voters, who made up about two-thirds of the state’s minority vote. Clearly, if Hispanic support for Obama falls any lower in 2012 than it did in the 2008 election, that would be a great boon for the GOP. On the other hand, there is certainly room for Obama to increase his support among these voters, which would strengthen his overall position. indd 35 1/24/12 5:38 PM 36 W illiam H. F rey and R uy T eixeira White college graduates, the other part of his growth coalition, will be critical in 2012.