By Lynn Vavreck
The financial system is so robust in opting for the result of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can are expecting winners and losers with extraordinary accuracy lengthy earlier than the campaigns commence. but when it really is precise that "it's the economic climate, Stupid," why do incumbents in reliable economies occasionally lose? the explanation, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what issues isn't just the kingdom of the financial system yet how applicants react to it. via demonstrating extra accurately than ever prior to how applicants and their campaigns impact the industrial vote, The Message issues presents a robust new manner of figuring out prior elections--and predicting destiny ones.Vavreck examines the earlier sixty years of presidential elections and gives a brand new idea of campaigns that explains why electoral victory calls for greater than easily being the candidate preferred by means of winning fiscal stipulations. utilizing info from presidential elections considering 1952, she unearths why, while, and the way crusade messages make a difference--and after they can outweigh fiscal predictors of election outcomes.The Message issues does greater than exhibit why applicants preferred via the economic system needs to construct their campaigns round financial messages. Vavreck's conception additionally explains why applicants deprived through the economic climate needs to attempt to concentration their elections on noneconomic matters that meet exacting criteria--and why this can be so not easy to do.